Pan-Arctic BGC Model

The Arctic is experiencing rapid environmental changes, including marine heatwaves, sea ice loss, harmful algal blooms, and ocean acidification, which present unprecedented challenges. The northward shift of key marine species and shrinking sea ice could create new fishing opportunities, adding stress to Arctic ecosystems and impacting food security for Alaska’s Indigenous Peoples.

Due to the lack of sufficient knowledge to manage these changes, the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement and the Arctic Fishery Management Plan prohibit commercial fishing until ecosystems can be reliably monitored. NOAA, through the Climate, Ecosystems, and Fisheries Initiative, is tasked with developing robust regional ocean models to inform early warnings, projections, and management strategies.

Indigenous Knowledge has long guided adaptation and conservation efforts, and this project aims to integrate these insights with scientific models. In partnership with a community-based network of Iñupiaq observers from northern Alaska coastal communities through the Alaska Arctic Observatory and Knowledge Hub (AAOKH), and NOAA' Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Alaska Fisheries Science Center, we are currently co-developing the Arctic MOM6-COBALT model to address marine resource challenges and enhance Arctic fisheries management. Our objectives include using both scientific and Indigenous Knowledge to create skillful simulations, analyze extreme events, and establish a framework for equitable community engagement in model development and application.